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THE
EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION ON THE NIGERIA MANUFACTURING SECTOR
1986-2010
ABSTRACT
This paper examines
the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian manufacturing sector
during a twenty five (25) years period (1986 – 2010). The argument is that
fluctuation in exchange rate adversely affects output of manufacturing sector.
This is because Nigerian manufacturing is highly dependent on import of input
and capital goods. The methodology adopted for this study is empirical. The
econometric tool of regression was used for the analysis. The population target
of this study is the total number of 25 years from (1986 – 2010) (25) annual
time series as data relating to other years after 2010 are not available. The
used in this study is the secondary source of data. The data to be utilized in
this study we be sourced through library research, publications of the Central
Bank of Nigerian (CBN) i.e. statistic bulletin, National Bureau of Statistic(NBS),
on line information and economic journals. Based on the findings, the
researcher found out that exchange rate has no significant effect on economic
growth of Nigeria also that there is no significant effect of fluctuation on
exchange rate on the manufacturing sector. Some recommendations for policy were
made based on the findings. Amongst others is the need to strengthen the link
between agriculture and manufacturing‟s
sector through local sourcing of raw materials thereby reducing reliance of the
sector on import of input to a reasonable level
Table of content
Approval page i
Dedication ii
Acknowledgement iii
Abstract iv
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1 Background ofthe
Study 1
1.2 Statement ofthe
Problem 3
1.3 Objectives ofthe
Study 5
1.4 Research
Questions 6
1.5 Formulation of
Hypothesis 6
1.6 Significant Of
the Study 7
1.7 Scope and
Limitations Of The Study 8
1.8 Definition of
Terms 9
viii
Chapter Two
Introduction
2.1 Review of Related
Literature 10
2.2 Theoretical
Concept Of Exchange Rate 18
2.3 Theoretical Frame
Work for Exchange Rate Fluctuation andManufacturing Output 18
2.4 The Objectives of
Exchange Rate Policy in Nigeria 20
2.5 Types of Exchange
Rate 23
2.6 Factors Affecting
Rate Of Exchange 25
2.7 Fluctuation inThe
Exchange Rate Of The Naira 26
2.8 Factors
Influencing TheDetermination Of Exchange Rates 27
2.9 Factors That Can
Affect The Manufacturing Process 29
2.10 Factors That
Causes The Currency Fluctuation 33
2.11 Manufacturing
Sector 36
2.12 Overview of
Manufacturing 49
Chapter Three
Introduction
3.1 Research
Methodology 64
3.2 Research Design
65
3.3 Source of data 65
3.4 Research
Instrument 66
3.5 Reliability And
Validity Of Research Instrument 66
3.6 Population Of The
Study 66
3.7 Sample And
Sampling Procedure 67
3.8 Method Of Data
Analysis 67
3.9 Decision
Criterion For Validation Of Hypothesis 70
Chapter Four
Introduction
4.0 Presentation and
Analysis of Data 71
4.1 Presentation of
Results 72
4.2 Results 73
Chapter Five
Summary ofthe
Findings, Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1 Summary ofthe
Findings 77
5.2 Conclusion 78
5.3 Recommendation 79
BIBLIOGRAPHY 81
APPENDIX
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE
STUDY
Following the
fluctuation of the naira in 1986, a policy induced by the structural adjustment
programme (SAP), the subject of exchange rate fluctuation has become a topical
issue in Nigeria. This is because it is the goal of every economy to have a
stable rate of exchange with its trading partners. In Nigeria, this goal was
not reached in spite of the fact that the country embarked on devaluation to
promote export and stabilize the rate of exchange. The failure to realize this
goal subjected the Nigerian manufacturing sector to the challenge of a
constantly fluctuating exchange rate.
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