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THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE
FLUCTUATION ON-THE-NIGERIA-MANUFACTURING-SECTOR-1986-2010
ABSTRACT
This paper
examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigerian manufacturing
sector during a twenty five (25) years period (1986 – 2010). The argument is that
fluctuation in exchange rate adversely affects output of manufacturing sector.
This is because Nigerian manufacturing is highly dependent on import of input
and capital goods. The methodology adopted for this study is empirical. The
econometric tool of regression was used for the analysis. The population target
of this study is the total number of 25 years from (1986 – 2010) (25) annual
time series as data relating to other years after 2010 are not available. The
used in this study is the secondary source of data. The data to be utilized in
this study we be sourced through library research, publications of the Central
Bank of Nigerian (CBN) i.e. statistic bulletin, National Bureau of
Statistic(NBS), on line information and economic journals. Based on the
findings, the researcher found out that exchange rate has no significant effect
on economic growth of Nigeria also that there is no significant effect of
fluctuation on exchange rate on the manufacturing sector. Some recommendations
for policy were made based on the findings. Amongst others is the need to
strengthen the link between agriculture and manufacturing‟s sector through
local sourcing of raw materials thereby reducing reliance of the sector on
import of input to a reasonable level
Table of
content
Approval
page i
Dedication
ii
Acknowledgement
iii
Abstract iv
Chapter One
Introduction
1.1
Background ofthe Study 1
1.2
Statement ofthe Problem 3
1.3
Objectives ofthe Study 5
1.4 Research
Questions 6
1.5
Formulation of Hypothesis 6
1.6
Significant Of the Study 7
1.7 Scope
and Limitations Of The Study 8
1.8
Definition of Terms 9
viii
Chapter Two
Introduction
2.1 Review
of Related Literature 10
2.2
Theoretical Concept Of Exchange Rate 18
2.3
Theoretical Frame Work for Exchange Rate Fluctuation andManufacturing Output 18
2.4 The
Objectives of Exchange Rate Policy in Nigeria 20
2.5 Types of
Exchange Rate 23
2.6 Factors
Affecting Rate Of Exchange 25
2.7
Fluctuation inThe Exchange Rate Of The Naira 26
2.8 Factors
Influencing TheDetermination Of Exchange Rates 27
2.9 Factors
That Can Affect The Manufacturing Process 29
2.10 Factors
That Causes The Currency Fluctuation 33
2.11
Manufacturing Sector 36
2.12
Overview of Manufacturing 49
Chapter
Three
Introduction
3.1 Research
Methodology 64
3.2 Research
Design 65
3.3 Source
of data 65
3.4 Research
Instrument 66
3.5
Reliability And Validity Of Research Instrument 66
3.6
Population Of The Study 66
3.7 Sample
And Sampling Procedure 67
3.8 Method
Of Data Analysis 67
3.9 Decision
Criterion For Validation Of Hypothesis 70
Chapter Four
Introduction
4.0
Presentation and Analysis of Data 71
4.1
Presentation of Results 72
4.2 Results
73
Chapter Five
Summary
ofthe Findings, Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1 Summary
ofthe Findings 77
5.2
Conclusion 78
5.3
Recommendation 79
BIBLIOGRAPHY
81
APPENDIX
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Following
the fluctuation of the naira in 1986, a policy induced by the structural
adjustment programme (SAP), the subject of exchange rate fluctuation has become
a topical issue in Nigeria. This is because it is the goal of every economy to
have a stable rate of exchange with its trading partners. In Nigeria, this goal
was not reached in spite of the fact that the country embarked on devaluation
to promote export and stabilize the rate of exchange. The failure to realize
this goal subjected the Nigerian manufacturing sector to the challenge of a
constantly fluctuating exchange rate.
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