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TRADE
OPENNESS AND OUTPUT GROWTH IN NIGERIA
ABSTRACT
This
research work studies the international competitiveness of the Nigerian economy
in the global market by analyzing the relationship between trade openness and output
growth in Nigeria. Using time-series data over the period 1970-2007, we show
that output growth of the Nigeria economy is a function of two sets of shocks;
(i) external shocks (openness and real exchange rate) and (ii) internal shocks
(real interest rate and unemployment rate). A non-monotonic and an ANCOVA
econometric models are postulated in
order to capture the structural pattern of the relationship between
openness and output growth as well as the policy effect of structural
Adjustment program (SAP). The result shows that there is an inverted U-shape
(no-monotonic) relationship between openness and output growth in Nigeria and
the optimum degree of openness for the economy is estimated to be about 67%.
Also, the liberalization policy of the SAP has positive economic effect on the
output growth. The ECM reveals that 79% of the equilibrium error is being
corrected in the next period. We concluded that unbridled openness may have
deleterious effect on the real growth of output of the Nigerian economy.
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE:
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of study
1.2 Trade openness and output growth
Historical
Experience of the Nigeria economy
1.2 Statement of the research
problem
1.3 Objectives of the study
1.4 Statement of the research
hypothesis
1.5 Justification of the study
1.6 Significance of the study
1.7 Scope and limitation of the
study
CHAPTER TWO:
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical literature
2.1.2 Theory
of customs union and free trade areas 2.1.3Models of export-led
growth
2.2 Empirical literature
2.3 Limitation of previous
studies
CHAPTER
THREE: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Analytical framework
3.2 Model specification
3.2.1 Test of stationarity
3.2.2 Test of co integration
3.2.3 Error correction model
3.3 Justification of the model
3.4 Estimation techniques
3.5 Evaluation Procedure 3.5.1
Economic test (a priori expectation)
3.5.2
Statistical (first order) test
3.5.3
Econometric (second order) test
3.6 Sources of data and software for
estimation
CHAPTER
FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Presentations of regression
results
4.2.1Test of
stationarity
4.2.2 Test
of co integration
4.2.3 The Error correction model (ECM)
4.3 Interpretation and Evaluation of
result
4.3.1Evaluation
based on economic criteria
4.3.2Evaluation based on statistical
criteria
4.3.3 Evaluation based on econometric
criteria
4.4 Evaluation of the working
Hypotheses
CHAPTER
FIVE: SUMMARY, POLICY PRESCRIPTION
AND
CONCLUSION
5.1 Summary
5.2 Policy Recommendations
LIST OF
TABLES AND FIGURES
Figure
1: Growth Rate of Real GDP
Figure 2:
Trend of Real GDP
Figure 3:
Growth of Export and Import
Figure 4:
The Degree of Openness
Table 1:
Openness Indicators
Table 2: A
Priori Expectation
Table 3:
Results of Model 1
Table 4:
Results of Model 2
Table 5:
Results of Stationarity test
Table 6:
Results of Co integration test
Table 7:
Results of the Error Correction Model
Figure 5:
Non- Monotonic Relationship between TPN and
RGDP
Table 8:
Summary of the T-Test
Table 9:
Pair-Wise Correlation Matrix
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