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THE
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INFLATIONARY TREND IN NIGERIA FROM (2001-2010)
(ABSTRACT)
One major
target of Marco-economic polices is how to achieve stability in price
level, stability here does not mean a
situation where price will remain fixed, but a situation where
variation in pries over a long
period is minimal since there is no stability in price sellers in labour and
capital market kept increasing, there
prices for some economic and other reasons while the producers and sellers in commodity market
also complains of increasing cost of
production or purchasing cost employees in labour market form union and fight
for increased wages to enable them meet up with high cost of living and
depreciation in purchasing power of money. The ultimate effect is that price continues to go up from time-to-time, if these
increase in price where gradual may be one or two percent per year, people can easily adjust without
much complaints but when prices are generally rising at a very fast rate people
become very worried and that is when the effect of rising pries becomes
of more significance to the
economy and lead to a situation known as Inflation, which is a process of
steady and persistent rising pries
caused by too much money chasing too few
goods. These however, posses great challenges to the citicizens in
particular and federal government generally, because it affects those with a
fixed income and causes distortion government
development and co-operate plans.
Based on
these critical situation been experienced in the country due to inflation. This
project work “The statistical analysis
on inflationary Trend in Nigeria from 1999 -2010 is desired to achieve the following objectives.
1. To estimate the quarterly trend of
inflationary rate in Nigeria from 1999-2010
2. To investigate if these is any seasonal
variation in the inflationary rate in Nigeria.
3. To ascertain whether there is any
significance difference in means quarterly inflationary rate from 1999-2010.
4. To determine factors that are
responsible for inflation in Nigeria and proffer possible solutions to it.
5. To make necessary recommendation based
on influence drawn from the findings.
Furthermore,
the research hypothesis will be to determine whether there is a
significant increase in the trend
and seasonal variation in the inflationary rate in Nigeria.
The
data will be collected through secondary source, like the annual publication of the National
Beareu of statistics NBS forming known as
the Federal Office of Statistics, while the statistical tool that
will be sued for analyzing data’s that
will be collected is time series
analysis and Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Finally,
this research work will be f great significant to the Federal government in
particular and the citizenry in general since it will enable government fight
the root causes of inflation by introducing corrective measures though making
of well articulated economic polices towards reducing these ugly diseases
called inflation in our economy.
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
1.2 background of the study
1.3 Statement of problem
1.4 Aims and Objectives of the
study
1.5 Significance of the study
1.6 The scope of the study
1.7 The statement of Hypothesis
1.8 Definition of terms
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Viii
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Degree of Inflation and its related
causes
2.3 Effect of inflation in the
Economy
2.4 Control of Inflation and Reasons for
its
ineffective
Control
2.5 Attempts made by Government at
controlling Inflation.
CHAPTER
THREE
3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Source of Data Collection
3.3 Problems encountered During
Study
3.4 Techniques of data analysis
3.4.1 Time Series Analysis
3.4.2 Chi-Square
3.5 Data Presentation
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 DATA
ANALYSIS
ix
4.1 INTRODUCTION
4.2 Estimation of quarterly trend of
inflationary rate
from 2001-2010
4.3 Estimation of quarterly seasonal
variation indices
and deseanalised data
for inflation rate from
2001 to 2010
4.3.1 Estimation of Seasonal variation
4.3.2 Estimation of Seasonal Indices
4.3.3 Computation of deseseaosnalised Data
for
inflation rate from
2001-2010
4.4 Predicting the quarterly inflation rate in Nigeria
4.5 Estimation of quarterly cyclical and
irregular
variation of inflation Rate (in
present) from
2001-2010
4.6 Determination of dependability or
otherwise of
inflation Rate on quarters /period
of the year
from (2001-2010)
CHAPTER
FIVE
2.0 SUMMARY ,CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Summary of findings
5.2 Conclusion
5.3 Recommendation
References
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
In this
contemporary society one major target of a macro economic polices is how to
achieve stability in price level. stability here does not mean a situation
where price will remain fixed, it means a situation where variation in price
over a long period is minimal
Price stability refers to relative
stability in price over a given period of time because for some reasons prices
rise and fall periodically. Sellers in the commodity market labour market and
capital market kept increasing there prices for some economic and other
reasons, in the commodity market producer or sellers complain of increasing
cost, employees in the labour market form union and fight for increased wages
to enable them meet up with the high cost of living and depreciation in the
purchasing power of money, while suppliers of land and capital increase there
rents and interest with excuse of rising cost of funds.
One ultimate effect is that prices
continue to go up from time, if this increase in prices where gradual may be
one or two percent per year, people can easily adjust without much complaint.
But when prices are rising generally at very fast rate people become very
worried and that is when the effect of rising prices becomes of significance to
the economy and however lead to a situation known as inflation in view of their
devastating effect of inflation in Nigerian economy, this project work will in
chapters that follows carry one a “statistical analysis on inflationary trend
in Nigeria from the period of 2001 to 2010
1.2 BACGRUOND OF STUDY
According to
oxford advance learners dictionary inflation is a general rise in the prices of
goods and services in a particular country resulting in a fall in the value of
money Webster new English collage
dictionary defines inflation as “an increase in volume of money and credit
relative to available goods and services resulting to substantial and
continuing rise in general price levels.
Solow (1979) sees inflation as
going on when one needs more and more money to buy some representative bundle
of goods and services or a sustained fall in purchasing power of money steady
persistent rise in prices caused by too much money chasing too few goods. It is
a state of conflict and disequilibrium in which a given community is struggling
to acquire more goods and services that are available.
To
illustrate the meaning of inflation the more consider the diagram.
B
A
From the
diagram above it can be observed that N1000 is originally chasing 200 units of
goods and services and the price is established at say A on the price line, the
supply while goods and services merely increased by four times to 800 units if
the community competes for these limited goods and services there will be
excess demand over supply at current price A, the result to too much money
chasing too few goods it will be that price will steadily rise to B and may
continue to rise if left unchecked by the community.
1.3 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
In recent
past there has been alarming increase on the rate of inflation imposing on
adverse effect on saving and investment, it has also affected the living
standard of Nigerians mostly affected the are the public servants whose incomes
are relatively fixed, considering utilization where many industries in Nigeria
produce below full capacity because of high cost of raw material, machines,
distorting our trade relations with other countries across the border and
responsible for constant industrial unrest since with persistent increase in prices,
unions like labour and trade union continues to agitate for higher wages
This however poses a great effect
on the performance of various sector of our economy and analysts are not left
out in this situation of examining the rate of inflation in our economy in the
world.
In view of the difficulties created
by inflation in Nigeria, the problem of this research work becomes to
investigate the trend of quarterly inflationary rate in Nigeria for the periods
in view as well as ascertain whether there is seasonal variation in the
inflationary rate for those periods and if the yearly inflationary rate depend
on some quarters of the year in focus.
Another problem of these research
survey is to examine how inflationary rate in this period are affected by
unpredicted external factors as well as cyclical fluctuation in the trend of
inflationary rate and also examine the root causes of inflation in the country
and the control measures taken by government, whether it has yielded any significant result against
this devastating problem of inflation which has eaten deep into our economy
1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTVES OF THE
STUDY
Based on the
increasing problems created by inflation in the Nigerians economy which has led
to the devaluation of our money where large amount of money is found chasing
few goods, leading to loss of confidence in our money.
The statistical analysis on
inflationary rate in Nigeria is aimed at achieving the following objectives
(1.) To ascertain whether there is a
quarterly increase in trend of inflationary rate in Nigeria from 2001 – 2010
and make forecast for its future occurrence.
(2.) To investigate if there is any
seasonal variation in the quarterly inflation rate in Nigeria for the period in
view.
(3.) To estimate the cyclical and
irregular variation in inflationary rate in Nigeria for the period in view for
effective prediction.
(4.) To determine the undependability
or otherwise of inflationary rate in some quarters of the year.
(5.) Do identify factors that are
responsible for the rate of inflation in Nigeria and if there is any positive
effect of inflation in our economy
(6.) To X- ray the corrective measures
taken against inflation rate in Nigeria if it has yielded any significant
result.
(7.) Finally to make necessary
recommendations based on inference drawn from the findings towards fighting the
ugly trend of inflation in our society.
1.5 SIGNIFCAINCE OF THE STUDY
In view of
the objectives which this study has set to achieve in the analysis of
inflationary rate in Nigeria, it is necessary at this point to reveal the
contributions and importance of the study to the federal state and local
government and general public at large. Therefore the study will be great
significance in the following ways.
(1.) If the inflationary rate in the economy
of Nigeria is found to be on increase it will enable the federal government to
fight inflation through introducing contractional monetary and fiscal policies.
(2.) Secondly the study will enable the federal
government to implement policies and programs like price control measure and
rationing of available products in those quarters of the year, where there is
more influence of inflation, if it is found out that there will be or there is
a strong seasonal variation and if also that the yearly inflationary rate
depends on some quarters/period of the year from the analysis carried on the
period of the years under review.
(3.) The knowledge of the causes of inflation
rate in our economy will go to long way in reducing the problems through
applying some corrective measure to stop these causes.
(4.) Generally the study will assist decision
makers in the country to realize the importance of keeping data up to date and
the usefulness of statistics and statistician in providing analytical devices
in various economic planning and national development.
1.6 THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The
statistical analysis of inflationary rate in Nigeria economy however covers a
wide scope which involves several statistical tools as could be possible, but
the researcher has narrowed down the study to cover two statistical tools of
time series analysis and chi-square X2 test of independence so as to meet up
with the requirement of the study over a period of ten(10) financial year from
(2001 – 2010) has been chosen so that the quarters of the years could be
properly taken
care of , which makes the series of (4 x 10) =
40 quarters which is a researchable scope.
1.7 THE SATAEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
Ho: there is
no significant increase in the trend of inflation rate of Nigeria from (2001
-2010)
Hi: there is
significant increase in the trend of inflation rate of Nigeria from (2001
-2010)
Ho: there is
no significant seasonal variation in inflationary rate of Nigeria from 2001-
2010
Hi: there is
significant seasonal variation in inflationary rate of Nigeria from 2001 -2010
Ho: yearly
inflationary rate is independent of variation of the quarters of the years from
2001 -2010
Hi: yearly
inflationary rate is not independent of the quarters of the year from 2001 –
2010
1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS
(1.) Macro- economics: this is a branch of
economics that is concerned with aggregate economics activities, issues mostly
treated in this includes inflation, national output, employment, price levels
income levels and distribution as well as balance of payments.
(2.) Inflation: this refers to a persistent rise
in the general level it is also a state of conflict and disequilibrium in which
a given community is struggling to acquire more goods and services than
available.
(3.) Deflation: this refers to a persistent fall
in general price level of most goods and services since price fall the value of
money rise during deflation.
(4.) Micro economics: this is the branch of
studies in economics concerned primarily with economics behavior of small
units.
FISCAL
POLICY: This involves the use of taxation and government expenditure policies
to influence the economy in order to improve the balance of payment situations.
INFLATIONARY:
this is connected with a general rise in the price of services and goods.
BIBILOGRAPHY:
this is comprehensive record of all material consulted in carrying out the
research it contains the names of the author, the title of the book the edition
and town of publication publishers and year of publication.
FREFERNCE:
this consists of all document including journal articles, books and unpublished
works that are cited in he research report.
RECESSION:
this is a difficult time for the economy of a country when there is less trade
and more inflation.
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