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Impact Of
Non-Oil Export On Nigerian Economy
ABSTRACT
The study
investigated the impact of non-oil exports on Nigerian economy during the
period of 1986-2010. This study was carried out against the background of the
crucial role non-oil export can play as an alternative source of revenue apart
from crude oil exports. To achieve this objective, multiple regressions were
used in analyzing the data. The empirical result shows that non-oil export is
statistically significant to Nigeria economic growth. On the other hand,
Government Expenditure (GEX) was not significant to Nigerian economy. Due to
this, some recommendations were made which include encouraging financial
institutions, improving in data collection and banking, efficient allocation
and use of resources, and creating economic environment that will help boost
the activity of non-oil export sector.
6
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Title
Page……………………………………………….…. i Approval Page ………………………………………… ii
Dedication…………………..…………………………....................iii
Acknowledgement……………………………………..iv Abstract………………………………………………………. v Table of
Contents……………………………………vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study………………………………………… 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem………………………………………… 8
1.3 Objective of the
Question………………………………………… 11
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis………………………………………….11
1.5 Significance of the
Study………………………………………… 12
1.6 Scope and Limitations of the
Study…………………………… 12
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical Literature……………………………………………. 14
2.1.1 The Agricultural Commodities and Products Exports…. 15
2.1.2 The Manufacturing and Craft Export
Product…………… 16
2.1.3 The Solid Mineral Export
Product………….………………..17
2.2
Empirical
Literature………………………………………………18
2.3
Limitations
of the Previous Studies…………….…………….26
7
CHAPTER
THREE
3. O
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Model Specification………………………………………………..27
3.2 Methods of Evaluation…………………………………………… 29
3.3 Model Justification………………………………………………..30
3.4 Sources of Data and Software
Packages……………………. 31
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0
PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1
Presentation of Result……………………………………………
32
4.2 Result
Interpretation……………………………………………. 32
4.2.1 Analysis of the Regression
Coefficients…………………. 32
4.2.2 Evaluation Based on Economic
Criteria……….………..33
4.2.3 Evaluation Based on Statistical
Criteria……..………… 33
4.2.4
Evaluation Based on Econometric Criteria………………
34
4.3 Evaluation of the Research
Hypothesis……………………. 38
4.4 Policy Implication………………………………………………. 39
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
5.1 Summary
of Findings…………………………………………… 40
5.2 Policy Recommendations….…………………………………… 40
5.3 Conclusion….……………………………………………………..43
Bibliography…………………………………………………………….44
8
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
There are a
number of reasons for a country to be concerned about its rate of economic
growth. Economic growth is designed by both affluent and non-affluent
economies. Economic growth is the desire for higher levels or real per capital
income, real output which must grow faster than the production of the economy
in question. Economists, policymakers, public and private sectors work
ceaselessly forwards attaining economic growth by the use of development and
growth models and policies. Among the policies used are trade policy (import
and export policies, monetary policy, exchange rate policy, fiscal policy,
market, etc). In this study, the non-oil exports and economic development in
Nigeria will be examined.
Non-oil
exports are the products which are produced within the country in the
agricultural, mining, and querying and industrial sectors that are sent outside
the country in order to generate revenue for the growth of the economy
excluding oil product. These non-oil export products are coal, cotton, timber,
groundnut, coca, beans, etc.
9
Today, as in
the past, the growth of Nigeria economy remains partly dependent upon
increasing productivity of the agricultural sector.
Helleiner,
2002 state that no matter how much development and structural transformation
achieved, it will remain its relative dominance in the economy to many decades
to come. Precisely, it is from agricultural exploits that the economy has
received its principal stimulus to economic growth.
Agricultural
sector can assist through the exportation of principal
primary
commodities which will increase the nation’s forei earnings and which can be
used to finance a variety of development projects. The growth of the
agricultural sector can
make a
substantial contribution to the total revenue, as well as having some
implications for intersectional terms of trade. Also in the area of capital
formation, the savings generated in this sector can be mobilized in development
purposes, while increase in rural income as a result of increasing agricultural
activities can further stimulates the product of the modern sector.
10
The needs of
the agricultural sector could indirectly influence the creating of additional
infrastructures which are in dispensable to rapid economic development
(Olaloku, 2001).
Another
non-oil export to be developed on is industrial sector. It is the fastest
growing sector in Nigerian economy. It comprises of many manufacturing and
mining. Nigeria has manufacturing base prior to 1960 and shortly after.
The problem
was due to lack of modern technological skills, managerial experience of
complex organizations and financial back-up. The problem was further aggravated
by the colonialists merchants convincing arguments on the goodness of
comparative cost- advantage.
Nigerians
were coaxed into concentrating their efforts in the production of primary
agricultural products and exporting them to the metrological industries in
Europe.
Our
industrial sector took off after independent relied on satellite firms representing
British interest. The bank sector, which is constellation of colonial bank
braches and some companies that were able to invest in manufacturing were the
multi-national that have access to funds, technology, and managerial expertise.
This greatly hindered the progress of indigenous entrepreneurs. The
11
Nigerian
manufacturing sector has been described by Ikediala (1983) as consisting of
more assembling plants. He says that the implication of this is that the
industries have very little background linage in the economy, since the bulk of
the inputs is imported, thus the manufacturing sector depends or imported
raw-materials of 42%. The capacity utilization of manufacturing industries has
always been low in this country. The reasons as put by CBN (1998) are not
unconnected with raw materials scarcity, consumers’resistance due to high
prices, and increase in cost of manpower. Others mentioned are equipment
breakdown due to poor technology, lack of spare parts. Time lies between when
inputs are ordered for and when they arrive, cash flow problem in industries
becomes a permanent features.
The Nigeria
civil war brought about the deterioration of the oil palm grooves and
plantations were abandoned and little if any new planting was undertaken. As a
result of that, the output of palm oil and palm kernel declined drastically.
But according to Onwuka (1985), the problems of palm products are due to the
stagnation in the production of this wild palm tress, which are of low-yield
quality, and the difficulties experience in harvesting them. In addition, the
old system of pricing which guarantees low
12
production
prices for palm produce discourage substantial investment from being made for
further production of this product. Also, the problem of marketing boards
cannot be over-looked.
Marketing
board is an institution set up by the government with the exclusive right to
buy and sell certain agricultural products. They purchase some products locally
export sales are made through the Nigerian.
Marketing
company, which is jointly owned by the state, one of the marketing functions of
the marketing board is to stabilize the prices or our cash crops and hence
creates stability of income for formers and to accumulate funds for development
purposes. But the operation has failed to provide incentives to farmers to
increase their input. Also, the producers aid unnecessary tax and they took
from the producers some money, which should have gone to them as income they
this reduced the amount of capital available to the producers.
This
criticism, according to Adenira (1991) made the federal Government to reform
the marketing board some with a view to increase producers’ prices and income
13
features of
the new authority while producer taxation (export duty and produce sale tax)
has been abolished. Another major boards with the responsibility of market
specific products wherever they are produced in the country. These boards are
likely to reduce administrative problem and be more economical compared with
all oil –produce state market boards previously in existence.
The major
fault of the successive government that are supposed to sustain this sector
through the building of macro-economic structures and incentives diverted their
attention away from agriculture. The result was sharp in the export/import
equation as country started importing even palm oil that was hither to
imploring from Nigeria. The situation was becoming worrisome thus by 1975 there
were attempts to recapture the lost of glory of
agriculture.
General Olusegun Obasan nations becomes the first real expressed official
attempt in this direction. It was followed by the establishment of two river
basin development authorities in 1977 by 1978 and 1979, the federal government
made budgetary provision to establish 4,000
hectares of
mechanized farms in each of the 19 states then, by
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