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Impact Of Population Growth On The Nigeria
Economy (1980 -2006)
ABSTRACT
It is said
that the population of any country constitute the most vital component of is
resource base, as time potentials for development. Population growth can be
positive or gainful to any economy if managed well. For instance China is noted
to be most populous country in the world but its population has been managed
very well and it has helped boost their economy by increasing the level of
productivity and providing cheap labour, thus having a positive impact on the
economy and making them one of the best economies of the world. But if the
population of any country is not well managed it will result to increase in
unemployment level, crime rate, poverty and will bring sufferings to many
homes. Methodologically, economic, statistical and econometric methods were
used and it was observed the unemployment rate have a negative relationship
with economic growth. Recommendation made include instituting Family Planning
Programmes.Finally, this work help us to understand that population growth is a
two track incident in the sense that it can be advantageous or
disadvantageous.
TABLE OF
CONTENT
Title
page
------------------------------------------ ii
Approval
page
------------------------------------------- iii
Dedication
------------------------------------------iv
Acknowledgement
-------------------------------------- iv
Abstract -------------------------------------------------- v
Tables of
contents
-------------------------------------- vi
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the
study---------------------------------1
1.2 Statement of problem --------------------------------- 6
1.3 Objectives of the study -------------------------------- 7
1.4 Statement of
hypothesis---------------------------------
7
1.5 Significant of study-------------------------------------- 8
1.6 Scope and the study ----------------------------------9
1.7 Limitation of the
study-------------------------------------9
CHAPTER TWO:
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical Literature ---------------------------------- -10
2.1.1
Theories of the population growth-------------------------12
2.1.2 The
Malthusian Theory
-----------------------------------12
2.1.3 The
Marxist Theory
------------------------------------16
2.1.4 The
Liberal Theory ------------------------------------17
2.2 .5
Factors Affecting Population Growth
-------------------18
2.2 Empirical Literature ------------------------------------24
2.2.1
Adverse Effects Of Population Growth On Economic
Growth
----------------------------------------------------------35
2.2.2 An
Overview of Theory Of Economic Growth
-----------38
CHAPTER
THREE: METHODOLOGY AND DATA PRESENTATION
3.1 Research Methodology ----------------------------------42
3.2 Model Specification ----------------------------------42
3.2.1
Mathematical Function
---------------------------------42
3.3 Economic Procedure --------------------------------------43
3.3.1
Economic criteria
-------------------------------- 43
3.3.2
Statistical criteria
--------------------------------44
3.3.3
Econometric criteria
-------------------------------- 45
CHAPTER
FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1
Presentation of Result --------------------------------- 49
4.2
Interpretation of Result --------------------------------50
4.2.1
Evaluation Based on Statistical Criteria ----------------52
4.2.2 Evaluation Based On Econometric
Criteria -----------55
CHAPTER
FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Summary
--------------------------------------------58
5.2 Conclusion --------------------------------------------60
5.3 policy recommendation ---------------------------------61
Bibliography
---------------------------------------------63
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 THE
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The consequences of population growth on
the economic development of less developed countries are not the same because
the condition prevailing in these countries are quite different from those of
developed economy. Therefore the body of literature on population growth in
Nigeria has always emphasized either the negative or the positive effect.
Therefore in every discussion, it is
conventional to start with a definition of terms used in such discussion.
However, population can be seen by a demographer as a change in the size of the
population. But when this change occurs in such a way that it reduces the size
of population, the demographer refers it as a negative growth but when it adds
to the size of population he regards it as a positive one. What we get from
this concept is that population growth can be positive or negative depending on
whether there is an increase or decrease in the size of a given population.
Population whether positive or negative is derived from three demographic
variables such as birth, death and migration rates
Udabah (1999:62) Threw more light on this
by adding that birth and death rates in underdeveloped country are quite
different from that of developed countries. Births rate in underdeveloped are
generally highly why those of developed countries are low. On the other hand,
death rates are higher in underdeveloped nations. The higher rate of population
growth is therefore a major characteristic of underdeveloped nations and is
partly responsible for the low rates of economic development.
Moreover, the population of any country
constitutes the most vital component of its resource base. This aspect is based
mostly on its size, growth rate, spatial distribution, demographic structure
and quality in terms of level of education, fitness and social welfare.
Population statistics are indispensable impute into the planning process in any
area. To government issuing programmes for instance in the efforts of
government in the developing countries to feed the people and also provide
quality services for them are being frustrated by rapid population growth. This
growth is attributable on the one hand to improvement in human survival
associated with the application of modern medical science to health matters,
better sanitation and immunization of children which have caused the death rate
to decrease.
On the other hand, so many socio-cultural
issues have complimented the growth of population in Nigeria positively (Lee
and Miler 1990, Rennne 1995, Ainsword et al 1996).
Consequently, the world population has
been increasing and the last two decades have been demographically
unprecedented as it rose from 4.2 billion people in 1985 to 6.4 billion in
2006. Much of this occurred in the developing nations as their population grew
from 3.7 billion to 5.1 billion as against that of developed nation which grew
from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion over the same period (United Nation 2001
billion).
Nigerian’s population is one of the
fastest growing population in the world and Nigeria is the most populous
country in Africa, ranked the tenths as obtained from two major sources, viz
the 1991 census and the Population Reference Bureau World Population Data
Sheet.
Obviously,
the population of Nigeria is large which makes it a “giant” relative to the
other Africa countries. The large population of Nigeria implies a large market
for goods and services as well as large pool of human resources for development.
However, the impact of population on development depends not only on the
absolute size but also on its quality. The major function responsible for the
rapid increase in the population of the country is the relatively high
fertility level as portrayed by a total fertility rate of about 6.0 life -
birth per woman in the 1990’s
Having seen from theoretical and empirical
view that the population growth is an impediment to the economic growth and
development especially under developing countries. It is then important to
answer this question, how detrimental is population growth to the economic
growth? To answer these we look into the interactions between population growth
and any of the economic variable such as , population growth, unemployment, savings
,interest, and inflation etc. So in this research work, our demonstration of
the impact of population on economic growth will be based on the study of the
relationship between population growth, interest, unemployment and inflation.
Now the question to answer becomes how those population growth influences
unemployment? Since we are working on the impact of population growth on
Nigeria, as whose population according the 2006 census was estimated to be at a
growth rate of 3%, our limitation of this study would be on the Nigeria GDP
(Gross Domestic Product) or GNI (GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT) versus the population
growth rate of Nigeria.
Nevertheless, economic growth is the
GDP OR GNI divided by the total population of the whole country. This measure
the level of output in the economy. This equation implies that if population is
rapidly growing, the economic growth will reduce marginally and people income
will also decrease. So according to the finding, GDP can be improved that is GDP per capital by
checking the population growth rate through control birth, death rate,
migration and some other demographic variables and economic variables.
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